Texas’ Winter Forecast: Much Warmer than Normal, With An Above Average Chance of Extreme Cold
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas tells us that this winter is expected to be warmer to much warmer than normal across the state with an above average chance of extreme cold. One of the remarkable statistics they cite is that over the past eight winters, five have experienced extreme cold outbreaks, where in the previous 25 winters, extreme cold only occurred in three winters.
Excerpts:
“Texas has experienced cold outbreaks more frequently in recent winters. Over the past eight winters, five have included a period of extreme cold (2023-24, 2022-23, 2020-21, 2017-18, 2016-17). In this case, “extreme” was defined as 14° F or colder in Dallas, 21° or colder in Houston, and 19° or colder in Austin. Prior to the 2016-17 winter, those extremes were only reached at all three locations in three of the previous 25 winters. Four of the five recent winters with a period of extreme cold occurred during a La Niña.”
“Given recent trends, which have shown cold outbreaks to be more common, in addition to a La Niña currently in place, this winter has above-average potential for a cold outbreak. Much like a tornado watch, that doesn’t mean a tornado will happen – but conditions will be present that are ideal for the development of a cold outbreak this winter. There is a better chance than most winters, but that does not mean it will occur and impact Texas.”
“In conclusion, while this winter is forecasted to be mild, the potential for a cold outbreak bringing extreme winter weather is greater than average. Recent trends support a Top 10 warmest winter, but a lot will hinge on how active the polar vortex is this winter and if there is enough of an impact with colder temperatures in ERCOT to trend the winter Colder.”